What About This “Double-Dip” Thingy? [ October 16th, 2010 ] Posted in » Financial Ideas

For the last few months, this term has been thrown around with almost complete disregard for the likelihood of it happening. But first of all, what is it?

It refers to a fairly significant pull-back in the economy, specifically in the major stock market indices such as the Dow and the S&P 500, as well as consumer sentiment about the near future, very shortly after a previously significant pull-back followed by a partial recovery. To make it simpler, picture a “W” in your mind, where the middle of the “W” doesn’t come completely back to the top, and pretend it’s a graph of the economy.

OK, so that’s what it is, and it’s what we hear about almost every day if we tune into any financial broadcasts or news programs. “This group of economists is saying…..”

So could it really happen? Sure it could happen. It did happen in 1981.

A more relevant question, though, would be “Is it very likely to happen?”

To that, the answer is “no”. In fact, since the Great Depression which began in 1929, the United States has had 12 recessions, including the most recent one in 2008 – 2009. In those 12 recession, we have had exactly 1 double-dip – the aforementioned 1981. And anyone who remembers 1981 also remembers runaway inflation exceeding 15%, home mortgage rates and CD yields in that same range.

This was the direct result of the Federal Reserve jacking up interest rates quickly in an effort to curb inflation and it didn’t work – so we can effectively blame that sole double-dip on something the government caused to happen – and that’s not happening now.

Bottom line? You have better things to think about. Go do that.

Want to know more? Schedule a no-obligation phone consultation at http://www.whattoinvestinnow.com.

Let’s talk, and create a plan that’s right for you and your family.

What’s Wrong With Getting A Big Tax Refund?

The obvious answer here seems to be “nothing”.  But actually, it’s a big something.

I know many people who tell me that getting a big tax refund is actually a part of their “budget”, because it means they know that every April they can take a family vacation or upgrade their big screen TV or pay off some more debt or whatever it is in their case.

The first bit of honest truth is that these people don’t have a budget.  A budget is something you create and live by, with periodic adjustments, which is intended to keep you living within your means and actually saving and investing for your future as well.  It doesn’t allow for splurging without planning.

(On that note, before you all click the back button in disgust J, it is still possible with a budget to take a family vacation and upgrade your TV, you just have to plan for it and allocate a bit each paycheck instead of getting wild and crazy every April!)

Last off topic bit about budgeting, make sure that whatever budget form you use, that it starts with you putting down your Gross Income at the top, and the VERY NEXT THING should be how much you can save and invest.  If that is 10% of your gross income, you have a pretty good chance of reaching some of your goals.  If it’s 20%, you have really good chance of reaching all of your goals.  After that comes taxes, housing, insurance, utilities and everything else.  Most budget forms have taxes and such right after income, with saving at the bottom.  That says “save whatever is left over”, while the message should be “pay yourself first.”  Ok, I’ll get off that soapbox for now.

Why don’t you want a big refund?  Simple, because Read More …

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July 12th, 2010 | 8 Comments

Don’t Be Apprehensive About The Market!

“Oh, my gosh! Did you see what happened in the stock market today? It was down almost 120 points!”

Ever heard that before? If you haven’t, you will. The question is: should you listen? The answer is: only if you like being really depressed one day and really excited the next day, because that’s typically what happens? Sometimes we get really good days back-to-back and sometimes really bad days a few times in a row, but that’s still not stepping back far enough.

Let’s say you’re 40 years old, and you started putting money into the stock market 20 years ago. The S&P 500 was trading at approximately 340 points, compared to nearly 10,000 today. Or maybe you’re 50 and your start was 30 years ago. The S&P 500 then was trading for about 100 points. So between 1979 and 1989, the market tripled. Between 1989 and 2009, the market grew by 33 times!

Isn’t that a better concept to stick in your mind than what most of the media is alarming you with lately? Like a market down about 33% in the past two years?

The only reason – at all – to be concerned about the short term in the market is if you plan to retire in the next few years. If you’re younger than that or if you like your job, you should be taking advantage of the magic of compounding returns to get you in a position where you have choices! Having the choice to work or not work is a whole lot better than needing to work to make ends meet. That’s when you might have no choice but to be really aggressive, which can hurt a lot if things don’t go the way you hoped.

And don’t listen to people who say you can’t be too conservative, because you can be! Remember my article (below) about the Rule of 72. If you put all your money into CDs right now, your money will grow at a rate lower than inflation. I don’t know about you, but I’d like my money to double sooner than three to four (or more) decades!

Still confused about the right thing to do? Let’s talk, and create a plan that’s right for you and your family.

Email: John@financialideasblog.com

1.888.379.4352  Extension 1000

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November 9th, 2009 | Leave a Comment

Why Did The Stock Market Drop After Last Week’s Unemployment Report?

The stock market dropped after last week’s unemployment report for one reason, and one reason only.  That reason is short-term investors.

We’re not talking about the proverbial day traders here, but ordinary people with ordinary fears and concerns who are not able to distance themselves emotionally far enough from their money to do serious investing.  We’re talking about most people.

We’re not just talking about unemployment reports.  We’re talking about any economic “news”, such as housing starts, manufacturing orders, foreclosures, mortgage rates, trade deficits, and a few dozen other factors which can be interpreted to mean different things by different people.  Primarily though, we’re comparing what actually happens with what “experts” forecast.  Even though we’ve seen a marked decrease in the number of new jobless claims, the unemployment numbers last week were a tiny bit higher than what was forecast.

This is not unlike the famous, or infamous, “guidance” which many companies offer as to how much money they will earn per share of their stock.  For example, Read More …

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October 8th, 2009 | 1 Comment

Fed’s Say U.S. Recovery Is Underway

By Mark Felsenthal and Alister Bull

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The Federal Reserve on Wednesday upgraded its assessment of the U.S. economy, saying growth had returned after a deep recession, while reiterating its promise to hold interest rates very low for a long time.

The Fed also said it would slow its purchases of mortgage debt to extend that program’s life until the end of March, in a move toward withdrawing the central bank’s extraordinary support for the economy and markets during the contraction.

The U.S. central bank, as widely expected, held its benchmark overnight lending rates at close to zero percent.

“Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in August suggests that economic activity has picked up following its severe downturn,” the Fed said in a statement after its two-day policy meeting.

“Conditions in financial markets have improved further and activity in the housing sector has increased,” it said.

U.S. government bond yields ended lower on the news that the central bank had reiterated a pledge to keep rates ultra-low for an extended period.

“I think it confirms that the economy still needs a little bit of help and that rates aren’t going to go up anytime soon,” said Alan Lancz at Alan B. Lancz & Associates in Toledo, Ohio.

But a stock market rally fizzled on concerns Read More …

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September 24th, 2009 | 1 Comment

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