What About This “Double-Dip” Thingy? [ October 16th, 2010 ] Posted in » Financial Ideas

For the last few months, this term has been thrown around with almost complete disregard for the likelihood of it happening. But first of all, what is it?

It refers to a fairly significant pull-back in the economy, specifically in the major stock market indices such as the Dow and the S&P 500, as well as consumer sentiment about the near future, very shortly after a previously significant pull-back followed by a partial recovery. To make it simpler, picture a “W” in your mind, where the middle of the “W” doesn’t come completely back to the top, and pretend it’s a graph of the economy.

OK, so that’s what it is, and it’s what we hear about almost every day if we tune into any financial broadcasts or news programs. “This group of economists is saying…..”

So could it really happen? Sure it could happen. It did happen in 1981.

A more relevant question, though, would be “Is it very likely to happen?”

To that, the answer is “no”. In fact, since the Great Depression which began in 1929, the United States has had 12 recessions, including the most recent one in 2008 – 2009. In those 12 recession, we have had exactly 1 double-dip – the aforementioned 1981. And anyone who remembers 1981 also remembers runaway inflation exceeding 15%, home mortgage rates and CD yields in that same range.

This was the direct result of the Federal Reserve jacking up interest rates quickly in an effort to curb inflation and it didn’t work – so we can effectively blame that sole double-dip on something the government caused to happen – and that’s not happening now.

Bottom line? You have better things to think about. Go do that.

Want to know more? Schedule a no-obligation phone consultation at http://www.whattoinvestinnow.com.

Let’s talk, and create a plan that’s right for you and your family.

Why Shouldn’t I Just Buy An Index Fund?

Okay, on this one, I’ll start off by noting that, just like the idea of doing-it-yourself, it’s entirely possible that this could work, and in some specific time periods in the past it has worked. Of course, funds which follow the same index but are from different fund families behave a little differently, and within fund families there are funds which track dozens of different indexes. My English teacher would remind me that I should say “indices”, but I do what I do, and she does what she does.(That lesson did actually stick, I’m just having fun today.)

Let’s look at one of the most popular indexes, the S&P 500.

Lots of fund companies offer a version of this, which essentially is Read More …

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June 27th, 2010 | 3 Comments

The Roth Conversion Opportunity (And Why It’s So Cool)!

Ever heard about this?  The idea that you can take your Traditional IRA or previous employer’s 401(k) plan and convert it to a Roth IRA?

If you haven’t, read on.  It just might be the best thing since sliced bread, and I’m not kidding.

Heck, even if you have heard about it, read on.  You might find it explained here in a better way that you have before, and that would mean I’ve done my good deed for the day.

First, what’s the difference?  That sets the stage for why this is such a great idea!

Read More …

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January 25th, 2010 | Leave a Comment

Having A Smart Nest Egg!

What’s the one thing that stops most people from investing?  (I’ll count to three before I answer, in case you already know and it has ever stopped you…)

1.     2..    3…

Okay, here it is – it’s the concern, maybe even fear, that you’ll lose what you have, or if that doesn’t happen, that what you invest will be TIED UP FOREVER, or at least until you get to age 59 1/2, which for many people is the same thing as FOREVER.

On the other hand, if you take the time to do the math, it won’t be much of a stretch for you to realize that not saving and investing won’t get you to where you want to be, so it only makes sense for you to do it.   You only need to go back to a previous blog on this page to read about the Rule of 72 and how that will answer this question.

Read More …

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January 18th, 2010 | 7 Comments

Some Financial Advisors Are Doing Well In Today’s Economy

Why is this? It’s because they have the presence of mind to step back and look at the big picture. Remember the chart in the last article (below) about saving money in an IRA for 50 years?

Look at the early years in that graph.

That was a test.

What are the early years? The first one, two, three? There’s hardly any difference between that and the start. “You mean I’ve been investing for three years with you now and I’ve hardly made anything? I’ll never get anywhere!”

Read More …

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December 7th, 2009 | 1 Comment

College Investing – Where Do I Start?

Lifetime Career Earnings:  H.S. Graduate Vs College Graduate

Finally, an easy question!  I wish I could say that the answer was just as easy to take, but it’s not, because college costs continue to go through the roof.
When I do a forecast for anyone saving for college, whether it’s for themselves later on or for their children or grandchildren, I forecast the college tuition inflation rate to be no less than 7%, which is twice the average inflation rate for the rest of the economy.

So, the biggest and hardest part to get through is going to be how much you might have to save and how early you might have to start.

In my neighborhood, there are dozens of young families Read More …

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October 22nd, 2009 | Leave a Comment

The Investor ­- Advisor Relationship

OK, take a deep breath.  Done?  Great, now answer this question for me: what do you think of when you consider the idea of a financial advisor?
Do you think of someone who can take your order to do something for you in the stock, bond or mutual fund markets?  That’s part of it, but if that’s where your thinking stops, and it does for many people, then your best bet is to find a do-it-yourself discount broker and save a little bit of money.  (We’ll get to the real cost of that later).
Maybe you think of someone who can look at the big picture, put together a complete plan, put that in a box and tie a bow around it, and hand it to you for a flat fee usually somewhere in the $3,000 – $4,000 range.  Armed with that information, you go off and find a do-it-yourself discount broker and pay him or her for the transaction fees after paying for the plan.  When changes need to be made to the plan, which you might or might not be able to recognize on your own, you can always hire the planner again and pay them to tell you what changes to make.
If you don’t have that time or expertise, you can always work with someone who will charge you a full-service fee for access to the markets, as well as charging you an annual fee of perhaps 1.5% – 2.0% of the size of your accounts to do the planning. Pretty expensive, but at least they’re providing an integrated service, right?
Do I think any of those choices are a good idea?  No, I don’t.  Am I biased in my thinking?  Yes, I am!  The bad news there is that I’m biased for my own benefit, because I want your business.  The good news is that I’m also biased on your behalf, because I want you to have the best deal at the same time!
OK, you say, I’ve read this far, so what IS that best deal?
I recommend that you choose to work with someone like me, who charges you those full-service fees for access to the markets, and who also does end-to-end planning for your entire life and your entire family.  The difference?  I don’t charge for any of the research, the planning, the appointments, or answering questions when you have them, even if it’s not time for your next appointment.  If you really want to pay the annual fee, we can work that out, but I won’t charge you any commission, the fee will only be 1.35% and you’ll benefit even more by getting a refund on a portion of the money charged every year by the mutual fund companies to market their products for them.  (Most people don’t even know about those fees, and here I am telling you about them already!)
What does working with me look like?  Take a look at the chart showing how I approach the relationship we’ll have. It shows a lot of areas that, if not important to you yet, will be as time goes on.  Financial Planning and Investment Strategy are important from the very beginning of your plan, but only after we’ve built a relationship and we know who each other is and how each other thinks.
Investment Policy is the rules I have to follow that fit your goals and needs, and I’ll ask you a lot of questions to establish that.  Insurance is the protection that you, your family and your assets deserve. The best financial plan in the world is lacking badly if you’re not protected against losing it, and that’s true whether you’re younger with a spouse and children, or older and possibly facing the need for in-home care or even assisted living.  Trust me, you don’t want to pay for that directly when there are much cheaper alternatives.  Tax Planning is an important step to make sure that you’re not paying too much to the federal government that could instead be benefiting you.  Estate Planning and Charitable Giving are keys to passing things on to the next generation, or the one after that, and/or to your favorite charity, all without sticking them with the taxes.
The only thing I don’t do in the accompanying chart is Tax Preparation, because I’m not a licensed CPA, but I do know competent people who can do that for you if you’re local, and I’m happy to work with your tax professional via the phone if you live somewhere else.  I’m also not an attorney, so I can’t draw up your estate plan for you, but you and I can determine if one might be to your benefit, and I’ll work with your attorney as well to make sure your needs are being addressed.
You might be thinking at this point that, since you’re a pretty smart person (which I know because you’re reading a financial blog in the first place), that you can do all of this by yourself and save a bunch of money.  The real question is, what’s the cost of not knowing everything and getting something wrong, or just missing a key element of what you should be doing?

All of us, including me, need objective team members to help them get to where they want to be, because there’s just no way to be unemotional and completely objective about our own finances.  This way you also get to use “OPR”, otherwise known as “Other People’s Resources”, to help you get to where you want to be.

If you would like to have a conversation or just ask a question please email me at John@financialideasblog.com.

I look forward to hearing from you.


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October 17th, 2009 | 1 Comment

Why Right Now Is A Good Time To Buy A House For A First Time Buyer

Why is right now a good time to buy a house for a first time buyer?

Real estate, along with many other investments such as stocks, bonds and mutual funds, can be found right now at prices lower than in recent years.  Some would say it’s the best opportunity we’ve seen so far in our lifetime.  Couple that with the $8,000 first-time homebuyer credit available if you close on a property and take title before December 1st, 2009, and you have a potentially winning combination.

So, what is a first-time homebuyer anyway?  It’s not as restrictive as it sounds.  IRS rules say that as long as neither you nor your spouse have owned your own home for at least three years prior to purchasing a new one, then you’re a “first-time home buyer”!  If you’re married, and your spouse has owned a home, neither of you can qualify, but if you have a significant other and you’re not married, then you could. Read More …

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September 16th, 2009 | Leave a Comment

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